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Uncertainty is quantified by a probability distribution which depends upon knowledge about the likelihood of what the single, true value of the uncertain quantity is. Variability is quantified by a distribution of frequencies of multiple instances of the quantity, derived from observed data.
The uncertainty effect, also known as direct risk aversion, is a phenomenon from economics and psychology which suggests that individuals may be prone to expressing such an extreme distaste for risk that they ascribe a lower value to a risky prospect (e.g., a lottery for which outcomes and their corresponding probabilities are known) than its worst possible realization.
Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the science of quantitative characterization and estimation of uncertainties in both computational and real world applications. It tries to determine how likely certain outcomes are if some aspects of the system are not exactly known.
The expected value of a monetary gamble is a weighted average, in which each possible outcome is weighted by its probability of occurrence. The expected value of the gamble in this example is .85 X $1000 + .15 X $0 = $850, which exceeds the expected value of $800 associated with the sure thing. [1]
The same change in price framed differently, for example as a $5 discount or as a $5 surcharge avoided, has a significant effect on consumer behavior. [16] Although traditional economists consider this " endowment effect ", and all other effects of loss aversion, to be completely irrational , it is important to the fields of marketing and ...
For example, the 68% confidence limits for a one-dimensional variable belonging to a normal distribution are approximately ± one standard deviation σ from the central value x, which means that the region x ± σ will cover the true value in roughly 68% of cases. If the uncertainties are correlated then covariance must be taken into account ...
The value function that passes through the reference point is s-shaped and asymmetrical. The value function is steeper for losses than gains indicating that losses outweigh gains. Prospect theory stems from loss aversion, where the observation is that agents asymmetrically feel losses greater than that of an equivalent gain. It centralises ...
In physical experiments uncertainty analysis, or experimental uncertainty assessment, deals with assessing the uncertainty in a measurement.An experiment designed to determine an effect, demonstrate a law, or estimate the numerical value of a physical variable will be affected by errors due to instrumentation, methodology, presence of confounding effects and so on.