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Its "no toss-ups" electoral map, based on state-level polling averages, successfully forecast outcomes in many swing states. RCP also provides averages for betting odds, which looks at voter sentiment through financial markets. [47]
Poll results can be affected by methodology, especially in how they predict who will vote in the next election, and re-weighting answers to compensate for slightly non-random samples. One technique, "weighting on recalled vote" is an attempt to compensate for previous underestimates of votes for Donald Trump by rebalancing the sample based on ...
The persons named in the polls are declared candidates or have received media speculation about their possible candidacy. The polls included are among Republicans or Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. If multiple versions of polls are provided, the version among likely voters is prioritized, then registered voters, then adults.
Election Day 2024 is here, and Harris and Trump are neck-and-neck in the polls. In Real Clear Politics' average of national surveys, Trump leads Harris by 0.1 percentage point, well within the ...
The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics published its first forecast of the 2024 electoral college contest today, and only a handful rate as “toss-ups” where either side could win ...
Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5. You might be tempted to ...
The following head-to-head polls feature some of the individuals who officially declared their candidacies. The incumbent president, Joe Biden , won the Democratic primaries. On July 21, 2024, Biden withdrew from the presidential campaign and endorsed his vice president, Kamala Harris , who shortly thereafter became the official nominee of the ...
Thomas Miller, a professor at Northwestern University, maintains that his model, guided by political betting data, is a much better forecaster than polls.