Search results
Results from the WOW.Com Content Network
Hindsight bias influences the decisions of investors in the investment sector. Investors tend to be overconfident in predicting the future because we mistakenly believe that we have predicted the present in the past, so we assume that the future will follow our predictions. Overconfidence is the killer for investment returns.
Another proposal is that people show confirmation bias because they are pragmatically assessing the costs of being wrong, rather than investigating in a neutral, scientific way. Flawed decisions due to confirmation bias have been found in a wide range of political, organizational, financial and scientific contexts.
In another example of near-total neglect of probability, Rottenstreich and Hsee (2001) found that the typical subject was willing to pay $10 to avoid a 99% chance of a painful electric shock, and $7 to avoid a 1% chance of the same shock. They suggest that probability is more likely to be neglected when the outcomes are emotion-arousing.
Another definition is "a problem whose social complexity means that it has no determinable stopping point". [2] Moreover, because of complex interdependencies, the effort to solve one aspect of a wicked problem may reveal or create other problems. Due to their complexity, wicked problems are often characterized by organized irresponsibility.
Selection bias is the bias introduced by the selection of individuals, groups, or data for analysis in such a way that proper randomization is not achieved, thereby failing to ensure that the sample obtained is representative of the population intended to be analyzed. [1] It is sometimes referred to as the selection effect.
Get AOL Mail for FREE! Manage your email like never before with travel, photo & document views. Personalize your inbox with themes & tabs. You've Got Mail!
“We are actively communicating with federal and local agencies about residents’ reports of drones spotted in eastern North Carolina and are working to find answers,” said U.S. Rep. Don Davis ...
McCartney added: "And then she found out we were coming out on the 18th so she moved back to the 10th. So I mean, you know, people do keep out of each other’s way. It’s a nice thing to do."