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The Economist reports that superforecasters are clever (with a good mental attitude), but not necessarily geniuses. It reports on the treasure trove of data coming from The Good Judgment Project, showing that accurately selected amateur forecasters (and the confidence they had in their forecasts) were often more accurately tuned than experts. [1]
A superforecaster is a person who makes forecasts that can be shown by statistical means to have been consistently more accurate than the general public or experts. . Superforecasters sometimes use modern analytical and statistical methodologies to augment estimates of base rates of events; research finds that such forecasters are typically more accurate than experts in the field who do not ...
The Good Judgment Project (GJP) is an organization dedicated to "harnessing the wisdom of the crowd to forecast world events".It was co-created by Philip E. Tetlock (author of Superforecasting and Expert Political Judgment), decision scientist Barbara Mellers, and Don Moore, all professors at the University of Pennsylvania.
In 2004, the second edition of the book described how and why the. Skip to main content. Sign in. Mail. 24/7 Help. For premium support please call: 800-290-4726 more ways ...
Forecasters were judged based on their predictions during the two-year period starting on Oct. 1, 2008, including the financial crisis and a portion of the current recovery.
As La Niña chances decline, here’s what forecasters say about Whatcom County’s winter weather. Robert Mittendorf. October 23, 2024 at 10:54 AM. City of Bellingham snowplows.
Philip E. Tetlock (born 1954) is a Canadian-American political science writer, and is currently the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, where he is cross-appointed at the Wharton School and the School of Arts and Sciences.
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