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In physical experiments uncertainty analysis, or experimental uncertainty assessment, deals with assessing the uncertainty in a measurement.An experiment designed to determine an effect, demonstrate a law, or estimate the numerical value of a physical variable will be affected by errors due to instrumentation, methodology, presence of confounding effects and so on.
Uncertainty propagation is the quantification of uncertainties in system output(s) propagated from uncertain inputs. It focuses on the influence on the outputs from the parametric variability listed in the sources of uncertainty. The targets of uncertainty propagation analysis can be:
In cognitive psychology, uncertainty can be real, or just a matter of perception, such as expectations, threats, etc. Vagueness is a form of uncertainty where the analyst is unable to clearly differentiate between two different classes, such as 'person of average height' and 'tall person'.
Experimental uncertainty analysis is a technique that analyses a derived quantity, based on the uncertainties in the experimentally measured quantities that are used in some form of mathematical relationship ("model") to calculate that derived quantity.
Fast-and-frugal trees are descriptive or prescriptive models of decision making under uncertainty. For instance, an analysis or court decisions reported that the best model of how London magistrates make bail decisions is a fast and frugal tree. [37]
In psychology and cognitive science, a memory bias is a cognitive bias that either enhances or impairs the recall of a memory (either the chances that the memory will be recalled at all, or the amount of time it takes for it to be recalled, or both), or that alters the content of a reported memory. There are many types of memory bias, including:
The mythological Judgement of Paris required selecting from three incomparable alternatives (the goddesses shown).. Decision theory or the theory of rational choice is a branch of probability, economics, and analytic philosophy that uses the tools of expected utility and probability to model how individuals would behave rationally under uncertainty.
Regret is a negative emotion with a powerful social and reputational component, and is central to how humans learn from experience and to the human psychology of risk aversion. Conscious anticipation of regret creates a feedback loop that transcends regret from the emotional realm—often modeled as mere human behavior —into the realm of the ...