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The doomsday argument (DA), or Carter catastrophe, is a probabilistic argument that claims to predict the future population of the human species based on an estimation of the number of humans born to date. The doomsday argument was originally proposed by the astrophysicist Brandon Carter in 1983, [1] leading to the initial name of the Carter ...
If the doomsday argument can apply to itself it can be simultaneously right (as a probabilistic argument) and probably wrong (as a prediction).. Therefore, Landsberg and Dewynne argue that it is more likely that the doomsday argument is wrong (even if its logic is correct) than that the human race will become extinct in 9,000 years (which the doomsday argument calculates at around 95% likely).
The self-indication assumption doomsday argument rebuttal is an objection to the doomsday argument (that there is only a 5% chance of more than twenty times the historic number of humans ever being born) by arguing that the chance of being born is not one, but is an increasing function of the number of people who will be born.
(Brandon Carter's alternative form of the Doomsday argument was delivered earlier that year, but Gott's derivation was independent.) He made a major effort subsequently to defend his form of the Doomsday argument from a variety of philosophical attacks, and this debate (like the feasibility of closed time loops) is still ongoing.
Nick Bostrom (/ ˈ b ɒ s t r əm / BOST-rəm; Swedish: Niklas Boström [ˈnɪ̌kːlas ˈbûːstrœm]; born 10 March 1973) [4] is a philosopher known for his work on existential risk, the anthropic principle, human enhancement ethics, whole brain emulation, superintelligence risks, and the reversal test.
The n-universes were introduced in Franceschi (2001), in the context of the study of Goodman's paradox and were also used for the analysis of the thought experiments and paradoxes related to the Doomsday argument.
Nuclear war is an often-predicted cause of the extinction of humankind. [1]Human extinction or omnicide is the hypothetical end of the human species, either by population decline due to extraneous natural causes, such as an asteroid impact or large-scale volcanism, or via anthropogenic destruction (self-extinction), for example by sub-replacement fertility.
Hanson received a BS in physics from the University of California, Irvine in 1981, an MS in physics and an MA in Conceptual Foundations of Science from the University of Chicago in 1984, and a PhD in social science from Caltech in 1997 for his thesis titled Four puzzles in information and politics: Product bans, informed voters, social insurance, and persistent disagreement. [6]