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The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.
If an election were held today, who would win? The CBC News Poll Tracker is your guide to following the polls. Get the latest numbers and analysis on where the political parties stand from...
This table provides a list of scientific, nationwide public opinion polls conducted from the 2021 Canadian federal election leading up to the 2025 Canadian federal election. National polls [ edit ]
Latest Federal Opinion Polls Canada 2025: Recent polls strongly indicate a victory for the Conservative Party of Canada in the upcoming election. Overall Prediction Justin Trudeau scraped through the 2021 Federal Election by winning 160 out of 338 seats.
Important note: Some polls are not be listed below because their data is behind a paywall (such as most Nanos weekly updates), but they are included in the projections.
The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo -type program that runs thousands of general election simulations, using vote projections per riding, past results, and various demographic data as the main variables.
Canadians have a more muted reaction to the NDP and BQ. Even among those in QC, 19% say they would never vote for the Bloc. The Conservatives have a 19-point lead over the Liberals, who still appear at risk of losing their second-place position.
The poll tracker is a product of the ongoing partnership between Abacus Data and the Toronto Star, launched last year to continually take the pulse of Canadian voters.
Reuters charts, maps and graphics. Poll date LIB CON NDP BQ GRN PPC Pollster Size Method ; 19-Sep: 32: 31: 19: 7: 4: 6: Abacus
The latest political Canada polls concerning the federal government and seat predictions if the 45th federal election were to be held tomorrow