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If he had continued on that path, he would have been favored to win the race in 538's forecast by later this month — perhaps as soon as this week. Instead, Harris is the one who has modestly ...
Harris had been leading Trump according to bookmakers for about a month before Tuesday's vice presidential debate. According to realclearpolling.com, Harris now has a 49.4% chance to win November ...
With less than 60 days before the 2024 presidential election — and on the eve of the first debate between Vice President Harris and former President Donald Trump — polls suggest that this ...
To compare our model with others, we output the probability each candidate will win in each state. Download our TSV files for state-by-state averages and state-by-state curves. 2. Likely Vote Counts. Finally, we simulate a Nov. 8 election 10 million times using the state-by-state averages. In each simulation, we generate a result for each state ...
1 Nov 5 08:00 pm R+6 [b] 52.3% R [b] 7.44% [b] Lean R Likely R Very Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R Michigan: 15 Nov 5 09:00 pm R+1: 50.6% D 2.78% Tossup Tossup Likely D Lean D Tossup Tossup Lean D Likely D Minnesota: 10 Nov 5 09:00 pm D+1: 52.4% D 7.11% Lean D Likely D Solid D Likely D Lean D Lean D Likely D Likely D NE ...
Odds for Donald Trump winning the presidential election jumped after his debate with Joe Biden. Here's how they moved after he debated Kamala Harris.
On Tuesday, 538 released its 2024 election forecast for the House of Representatives. The general idea behind our forecast is to combine polling data (say, on which party Americans want to control ...
A separate Washington Post/Schar School megapoll (of 5,000 registered voters) has Harris just 1 point ahead of Trump. Harris has 49 percent of the vote and Trump 48 percent, according to the poll ...