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2.7% 4.4% Harris +5.1%: 538: through August 22, 2024 August 23, 2024 47.3%: 43.6% 4.6% 4.5% Harris +3.7%: Silver Bulletin: through August 23, 2024
As of Oct. 30 at 11:30 a.m. Eastern, the margin between Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump in 538's polling averages is smaller than 4 points in seven states: the familiar septet of Arizona ...
Harris had been leading Trump according to bookmakers for about a month before Tuesday's vice presidential debate. According to realclearpolling.com, Harris now has a 49.4% chance to win November ...
As of Friday at 10 a.m. Eastern, our average of national polls says Harris has the support of 45.0 percent of voters, while Trump garners 43.5 percent. Harris and Trump are tied in 538's new ...
E.g., if betting $10 on a 2-to-1 odds bet (upon win you are returned $30, winning you $20), then = $ / $ =. The figure plots the amount gained with a win on the x-axis against the fraction of portfolio to bet on the y-axis. This figure assumes p=0.5 (that the probability of both a win and a loss is 50%).
The addition law of probability [2] combines the chances of making the straight on the turn (4/47 = 8.5%) and on the river (4/46 = 8.7%) to give the player an equity of 17.2%, assuming no other cards will give them a winning hand. Calculating equity makes an assumption of the opponents hand.
On Tuesday, 538 released its 2024 election forecast for the House of Representatives. The general idea behind our forecast is to combine polling data (say, on which party Americans want to control ...
To compare our model with others, we output the probability each candidate will win in each state. Download our TSV files for state-by-state averages and state-by-state curves. 2. Likely Vote Counts. Finally, we simulate a Nov. 8 election 10 million times using the state-by-state averages. In each simulation, we generate a result for each state ...