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The 2011 S&P downgrade was the first time the US federal government was given a rating below AAA. S&P had announced a negative outlook on the AAA rating in April 2011. The downgrade to AA+ occurred four days after the 112th United States Congress voted to raise the debt ceiling of the federal government by means of the Budget Control Act of 2011 on August 2, 2011.
Ordinary Treasury notes pay a fixed interest rate that is set at auction. Current yields on the 10-year Treasury note are widely followed by investors and the public to monitor the performance of the U.S. government bond market and as a proxy for investor expectations of longer-term macroeconomic conditions. [10]
Treasury bills — like I bonds and Treasury inflation-protected securities, or TIPS — are issued by and backed by the US government. I bonds, for example, pay interest for up to 30 years.
The first is a fixed rate which will remain constant over the life of the bond; the second component is a variable rate adjusted every six months from the time the bond is purchased based on the current inflation rate. The fixed rate is determined by the Treasury Department, which has not disclosed how that rate is set. [14]
As Wall Street awaits the meeting outcome, the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury remains well above 3.5%, its highest level since 2011, while the 2-year Treasury note is racing toward 4%.
Today, the fed funds rate stands at roughly 4.6%, as the Fed's target interest rate range is 4.5%-4.75% following its decision last month to raise rates an additional 25 basis points.
Their models show that when the difference between short-term interest rates (they use 3-month T-bills) and long-term interest rates (10-year Treasury bonds) at the end of a federal reserve tightening cycle is negative or less than 93 basis points positive, a rise in unemployment usually occurs. [17]
U.S. crude oil futures continued this week’s climb on the heels of the heftiest OPEC+ production cut since 2020. DataTrek Research noted that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude at more than $85 ...