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  2. Statistical association football predictions - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_association...

    Statistical Football prediction is a method used in sports betting, to predict the outcome of football matches by means of statistical tools. The goal of statistical match prediction is to outperform the predictions of bookmakers [citation needed] [dubious – discuss], who use them to set odds on the outcome of football matches.

  3. Expected goals - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_goals

    For each team, the season was split into two halves. Since midseason trades and injuries can have an impact on a team’s performance, we did not use statistics from the first half of the season to predict goals in the second half. Instead, we split the season into odd and even games, and used statistics from odd games to predict goals in even ...

  4. Determining the outcome of a match (association football)

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Determining_the_Outcome_of...

    Normally these are applied in the order listed above — i.e. for a two legged match, extra time is played if the away goals rule does not determine a victor. After extra time, if the score is still level, a penalty shoot-out takes place. In a few cup competitions extra time is ignored completely and the game goes directly to penalties.

  5. Running out the clock - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Running_out_the_clock

    In sports strategy, running out the clock (also known as running down the clock, stonewalling, killing the clock, chewing the clock, stalling, time-wasting (or timewasting) or eating clock [1]) is the practice of a winning team allowing the clock to expire through a series of preselected plays, either to preserve a lead or hasten the end of a one-sided contest.

  6. Football Power Index - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Football_Power_Index

    Football Power Index (abbreviated as FPI) is a predictive rating system developed by ESPN that measures team strength and uses it to forecast game and season results in American football. Each team's FPI rating is composed of predictive offensive, defensive, and special teams value, as measured by a function of expected points added (EPA). That ...

  7. Pythagorean expectation - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_expectation

    Initially the correlation between the formula and actual winning percentage was simply an experimental observation. In 2003, Hein Hundal provided an inexact derivation of the formula and showed that the Pythagorean exponent was approximately 2/(σ √ π) where σ was the standard deviation of runs scored by all teams divided by the average number of runs scored. [8]

  8. Shrinkage (statistics) - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shrinkage_(statistics)

    In statistics, shrinkage is the reduction in the effects of sampling variation. In regression analysis , a fitted relationship appears to perform less well on a new data set than on the data set used for fitting. [ 1 ]

  9. Least-angle regression - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Least-angle_regression

    Standardized coefficients shown as a function of proportion of shrinkage. In statistics, least-angle regression (LARS) is an algorithm for fitting linear regression models to high-dimensional data, developed by Bradley Efron, Trevor Hastie, Iain Johnstone and Robert Tibshirani.