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Tropical cyclone forecasting is the science of forecasting where a tropical cyclone's center, and its effects, are expected to be at some point in the future. There are several elements to tropical cyclone forecasting: track forecasting, intensity forecasting, rainfall forecasting, storm surge, tornado, and seasonal forecasting.
Tropical cyclone track forecasting involves predicting where a tropical cyclone is going to track over the next five days, every 6 to 12 hours. The history of tropical cyclone track forecasting has evolved from a single-station approach to a comprehensive approach which uses a variety of meteorological tools and methods to make predictions.
Forecasters say the information allows them to more accurately predict a hurricane's intensity. The other new weapon improved storm surge sensors. "The most dangerous aspect of a hurricane ...
The Statistical Hurricane Intensity Forecast (SHIFOR) has been used since 1979 for tropical cyclone intensity forecasting. It uses climatology and persistence to predict future intensity, including the current Julian day , current cyclone intensity, the cyclone's intensity 12 hours ago, the storm's initial latitude and longitude, as well as its ...
The newer research tools reach layers in the storm the hurricane hunters aircraft can’t, including the critical space near the surface where the atmosphere and hurricane interact with the ocean.
Forecasters predicted an abnormally active Atlantic hurricane season in 2024, estimating as many as 24 named storms forming from June through November. Hurricane Beryl already emerged in July as ...
— The HWRF provides operational guidance for forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in both the North Atlantic and East Pacific basins. Hurricane forecasts are produced on demand every six hours at 00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC for up to four tropical storms at a time. The HWRF hurricane model graphics are available at six-hour increments up ...
The NHC are forecasting at least 25 named storms for 2024, and say 13 of them are likely to develop into hurricanes — with 7 of those becoming major hurricanes of category 3 or higher intensity.