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The overconfidence effect is a well-established bias in which a person's subjective confidence in their judgments is reliably greater than the objective accuracy of those judgments, especially when confidence is relatively high. [1] [2] Overconfidence is one example of a miscalibration of subjective probabilities.
Many behaviors of humans have been observed, investigated and named, and overconfidence is no exception. People who think a little too highly of themselves are known to experience overconfidence bias.
Confidence is the feeling of belief or trust that a person or thing is reliable. [1] Self-confidence is trust in oneself. Self-confidence involves a positive belief that one can generally accomplish what one wishes to do in the future. [2]
For example, in labeling another person as biased, one may also label their intentions cynically. But when examining one's own cognitions, people judge themselves based on their good intentions. It is likely that in this case, one may attribute another's bias to "intentional malice" rather than an unconscious process.
Overconfidence is a very serious problem, but you probably think it doesn't affect you. That's the tricky thing with overconfidence: The people who are most overconfident are the ones least likely ...
In the case of upward counterfactual thinking, people tend to feel more negative feelings (e.g., regret, disappointment) about the situation. When thinking in this manner, people focus on ways that the situation could have turned out more positively: for example, "If only I had studied more, then I wouldn't have failed my test". [16]
Why You Need to Do Your Research There are other takeaways from this study and others that can have a bearing on how you interpret professional advice and whether or not to act on it. For example:
The illusion of explanatory depth (IOED) is cognitive bias or an illusion where people tend to believe they understand a topic better than they actually do. [1] [2] [3] The term was coined by Yale researchers Leonid Rozenblit and Frank Keil in 2002.