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That is, a prediction of 80% that correctly proved true would receive a score of ln(0.8) = −0.22. This same prediction also assigns 20% likelihood to the opposite case, and so if the prediction proves false, it would receive a score based on the 20%: ln(0.2) = −1.6. The goal of a forecaster is to maximize the score and for the score to be ...
Stock market prediction is the act of trying to determine the future value of a company stock or other financial instrument traded on an exchange. The successful ...
Predictive analytics, or predictive AI, encompasses a variety of statistical techniques from data mining, predictive modeling, and machine learning that analyze current and historical facts to make predictions about future or otherwise unknown events.
In weather forecasting, model output statistics (MOS) is a multiple linear regression technique in which predictands, often near-surface quantities (such as two-meter-above-ground-level air temperature, horizontal visibility, and wind direction, speed and gusts), are related statistically to one or more predictors.
The simplest way of doing this, and indeed the primary method used, is to look at best estimates. The projections in financial analysis usually use the most likely rate of claim, the most likely investment return, the most likely rate of inflation, and so on. The projectio
Probabilistic forecasting summarizes what is known about, or opinions about, future events. In contrast to single-valued forecasts (such as forecasting that the maximum temperature at a given site on a given day will be 23 degrees Celsius, or that the result in a given football match will be a no-score draw), probabilistic forecasts assign a probability to each of a number of different ...
Linear prediction is a mathematical operation where future values of a discrete-time signal are estimated as a linear function of previous samples. In digital signal processing , linear prediction is often called linear predictive coding (LPC) and can thus be viewed as a subset of filter theory .
A gambler has $2, she is allowed to play a game of chance 4 times and her goal is to maximize her probability of ending up with a least $6. If the gambler bets $ on a play of the game, then with probability 0.4 she wins the game, recoup the initial bet, and she increases her capital position by $; with probability 0.6, she loses the bet amount $; all plays are pairwise independent.