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[1] [2] It is a concrete form of the more general I = PAT equation [3] relating factors that determine the level of human impact on climate. Although the terms in the Kaya identity would in theory cancel out, it is useful in practice to calculate emissions in terms of more readily available data, namely population, GDP per capita, energy per ...
More generally, an increase by a factor c/c 0 gives: ln(c/c 0)*5 W/m 2. These results are close to the approximation of a more elaborate yet simplified model giving ln(c/c 0)*5.35 W/m 2, [4] and the radiative forcing due to CO 2 doubling with much more complicated models giving 3.1 W/m 2.
In terms of quantitative elements, they provide data accompanying the scenarios on national population, urbanization and GDP (per capita). [6] The SSPs can be quantified with various Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) to explore possible future pathways both with regards to socioeconomic and climate pathways. [4] [5] [6] The five scenarios are:
A plausible and significant contributor to global catastrophic risk; the potential for climate change to be a global catastrophic threat can be referred to as "catastrophic climate change". Global decimation risk: The probability of a loss of 10% (or more) of global population and the severe disruption of global critical systems (such as food ...
Many parameters influence climate change scenarios. Three important parameters are the number of people (and population growth), their economic activity new technologies. Economic and energy models, such as World3 and POLES, quantify the effects of these parameters. Climate change scenarios exist at a national, regional or global scale.
Additionally, climate models may be unable to adequately predict short-term regional climatic shifts. [182] A subset of climate models add societal factors to a physical climate model. These models simulate how population, economic growth, and energy use affect—and interact with—the physical climate. With this information, these models can ...
A study by Climate Central, a U.S.-based research group, looked at temperatures in 180 countries and 22 territories and found that 98% of the world's population were exposed to higher temperatures ...
Its most current version is 3.1, while 3.0 was the fifth generation. On May 17, 2002, its name was changed from the NCAR Community Climate Model to reflect its role in the new system. [8] It shares the same horizontal grid as the land model of CCSM: a 256×128 regular longitude/latitude global horizontal grid (giving a 1.4 degree resolution).