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1.2 Two-party preferred. 2 Voting intention. Toggle Voting intention subsection. 2.1 2025. 2.2 2024. ... 2025 Australian federal election; Pre-election pendulum ...
Various research and polling firms conducted opinion polling before the 2025 federal election in individual electorates across Australia, in relation to voting intentions in the Australian House of Representatives.
Instant-runoff (preferential) voting method. TPP/TCP vote is calculated when two candidates remain. In Australian politics, the two-party-preferred vote (TPP or 2PP), commonly referred to as simply preferences, is the result of an election or opinion poll after preferences have been distributed to the two candidates with the highest number of votes who, in some cases, can be independents.
The Newspoll, published in The Australian newspaper, showed the ruling Liberal-National coalition trailing Labor 47 percent to 53 percent on a two-party preferred basis, under which votes for ...
While every seat has a two-candidate preferred (TCP) result, seats where the major parties have come first and second are commonly referred to as having a two-party-preferred (TPP) result. The concept of "swing" in Australian elections is not simply a function of the difference between the votes of the two leading candidates, as it is in Britain.
In the lead-up to the 2022 Australian federal election, a number of polling companies conducted regular opinion polls for various news organisations. These polls collected data on parties' primary vote, and contained an estimation of the two-party-preferred vote.
Election analyst Ben Raue observed that the use of the two-party-preferred count in the Mackerras Pendulum also had the effect of classifying several seats as safer than they really were: for example, the seat of Macnamara ended up with a 12.25% margin of victory for the Labor candidate, but if just 0.64% of voters had changed their preference ...
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