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Mark Wentzel, a hydrologist at the Texas Water Development Board, said be prepared for a wetter season. “The months of April, May, and June historically bring a lot of rainfall to our state," he ...
This method has been used for years within National Weather Service forecasts, as a period's chance of rain equals the chance that 0.01 inches (0.25 mm) will fall in any particular spot. [16] In this case, it is known as probability of precipitation. These probabilities can be derived from a deterministic forecast using computer post-processing.
And there’s a 90 percent chance of rain on Friday in North Texas. It drops to a 40 percent chance on Friday night. Dunn said the overall severe weather threat is low in North Texas.
The probability of precipitation can also be expressed using descriptive terms instead of numerical values. For instance, the NWS might describe a precipitation forecast with terms such as "slight chance" meaning 20% certainty and "scattered" meaning 30–50% areal coverage. [10] The precise meaning of these terms varies. [11]
Here's a look at road conditions and closures across Central Texas. Road closures: Heavy rain flooding closes more than 30 roads from Georgetown to San Marcos Road closures, driving conditions map ...
For example, if it is unknown whether or not it will rain tomorrow, then there is a state of uncertainty. If probabilities are applied to the possible outcomes using weather forecasts or even just a calibrated probability assessment, the uncertainty has been quantified. Suppose it is quantified as a 90% chance of sunshine.
Monday-Monday night: Portions of the upper and middle Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas can expect heavy rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with localized amounts of 15 inches. This is likely to trigger ...
The high risk was issued at 1630Z driven by 60% significant severe wind probability as the maximum tornado probability was a hatched 15% area, just short of the high risk level. A total of 19 tornadoes were confirmed; one was rated EF3. 278 damaging wind gusts were reported, including 4 hurricane force gusts, though most occurred over Ohio and ...