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A probability of 70% for rain tomorrow does not mean that the rain is inherently uncertain. ... This shift—from isolated probabilities to integrated meaning—is the first step toward ...
The probability of precipitation can also be expressed using descriptive terms instead of numerical values. For instance, the NWS might describe a precipitation forecast with terms such as "slight chance" meaning 20% certainty and "scattered" meaning 30–50% areal coverage. [10] The precise meaning of these terms varies. [11]
This method has been used for years within National Weather Service forecasts, as a period's chance of rain equals the chance that 0.01 inches (0.25 mm) will fall in any particular spot. [16] In this case, it is known as probability of precipitation. These probabilities can be derived from a deterministic forecast using computer post-processing.
Top weather news for Monday, Jan. 27, 2025: Rain has triggered mudslides and debris flows in recent wildfire burn-scar areas in Southern California as forecasters monitor the development of the ...
Following this latest deluge of heavy rainfall, Downtown Los Angeles has now picked up 14.38 inches of rain since Jan. 1. This is an incredible feat, considering they average 14.26 inches of rain ...
* this is a particularly dangerous situation * additional rainfall amounts of 6 to 9 inches are expected. locally higher amounts are likely. this...in combination of the 2 to 4 inches that have already fallen may lead to total rainfall amounts in excess of 12 inches in many locations. * rainfall amounts such as these will likely lead to ...
Rain continues to fall in Southern California from an atmospheric river, raising the risk for additional mudslides with more than 120 reported so far in Los Angeles.
For example, if it is unknown whether or not it will rain tomorrow, then there is a state of uncertainty. If probabilities are applied to the possible outcomes using weather forecasts or even just a calibrated probability assessment, the uncertainty has been quantified. Suppose it is quantified as a 90% chance of sunshine.
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