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The Moscow rules are rules-of-thumb said to have been developed during the Cold War to be used by spies and others working in Moscow.. The rules are associated with Moscow because the city developed a reputation as being a particularly harsh locale for clandestine operatives who were exposed.
After experiencing a bad outcome with a decision problem, the tendency to avoid the choice previously made when faced with the same decision problem again, even though the choice was optimal. Also known as "once bitten, twice shy" or "hot stove effect". [106] Mere exposure effect or familiarity principle (in social psychology)
Disagree and commit is a management principle that individuals are allowed to disagree while a decision is being made, but that once a decision has been made, everybody must commit to implementing the decision. Disagree and commit is a method of avoiding the consensus trap, in which the lack of consensus leads to inaction.
For example, Judge Richard Posner once remarked that falsus in uno was a "discredited doctrine" based on "primitive psychology". This assertion was not made in relation to fraudulent documentation or a "material" inconsistency; rather, it was based on what the court characterizes as "innocent mistakes, trivial inconsistencies, and harmless ...
Emotional decision-making is a common mistake investors make. Cognitive biases such as herd mentality, loss aversion, anchoring bias and hindsight bias can diminish your ability to make good ...
George Box. The phrase "all models are wrong" was first attributed to George Box in a 1976 paper published in the Journal of the American Statistical Association.In the paper, Box uses the phrase to refer to the limitations of models, arguing that while no model is ever completely accurate, simpler models can still provide valuable insights if applied judiciously. [1]
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Once an action has been taken, the ways in which we evaluate the effectiveness of what we did may be biased. [3] It is believed this may influence our future decision-making. These biases may be stored as memories, which are attributions that we make about our mental experiences based on their subjective qualities, our prior knowledge and ...