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Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.”. Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.
Poll type. State. Cycle. Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.”. Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls.
How the Senate forecast has changed. See how each party’s forecasted seat total and chances of controlling the Senate have changed over time. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll.
538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes. in our simulations of the 2024 Senate election. Democrats win control 8 times out of 100. If the Senate is tied 50-50, the vice president casts the tiebreaking vote.
Who’s ahead in the national polls? An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
Who’s ahead in the Pennsylvania Senate ? An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.”.
Who’s ahead in the Washington Senate ? An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
Who’s ahead in the Massachusetts Senate ? An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency
Who’s ahead in the Florida Senate ? An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.