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Research tells us that the stock market tends to follow a presidential cycle. Stock prices go up during a presidential election year like 2012 by an average of about 8 percent.
By March 9, 2009, the Dow had fallen to 6,500, a percentage decline exceeding the pace of the market's fall during the Great Depression and a level which the index had last seen in 1997. On March 10, 2009, a countertrend bear market rally began, taking the Dow up to 8,500 by May 6, 2009. Financial stocks were up more than 150% during this rally.
The US bear market of 2007–2009 was a 17-month bear market that lasted from October 9, 2007 to March 9, 2009, during the 2007–2008 financial crisis. The S&P 500 lost approximately 50% of its value, but the duration of this bear market was just below average.
Several key economic variables (e.g., Job level, real GDP per capita, stock market, and household net worth) hit their low point (trough) in 2009 or 2010, after which they began to turn upward, recovering to pre-recession (2007) levels between late 2012 and May 2014 (close to Reinhart's prediction), which marked the recovery of all jobs lost ...
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In preparing economic forecasts a variety of information has been used in an attempt to increase the accuracy. Everything from macroeconomic, [2] microeconomic, [3] market data from the future, [4] machine-learning (artificial neural networks), [5] and human behavioral studies [6] have all been used to achieve better forecasts. Forecasts are ...
The more upbeat 2024 forecasts come as the bull market charges on, with the S&P 500 up 3.2% in the last month and 22.6% this year. Several risks persist, though, with the upcoming US presidential ...
The efficacy of technical analysis is disputed by the efficient-market hypothesis, which states that stock market prices are essentially unpredictable, [5] and research on whether technical analysis offers any benefit has produced mixed results. [6] [7] [8] Technical analysts or chartists are usually less concerned with any of a company's ...