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The positive predictive value (PPV), or precision, is defined as = + = where a "true positive" is the event that the test makes a positive prediction, and the subject has a positive result under the gold standard, and a "false positive" is the event that the test makes a positive prediction, and the subject has a negative result under the gold standard.
The final prediction by FiveThirtyEight on the morning of election day (November 8, 2016) had Hillary Clinton with a 71% chance to win the 2016 United States presidential election, [70] while other major forecasters had predicted Clinton to win with at least an 85% to 99% probability.
Prediction intervals are commonly used as definitions of reference ranges, such as reference ranges for blood tests to give an idea of whether a blood test is normal or not. For this purpose, the most commonly used prediction interval is the 95% prediction interval, and a reference range based on it can be called a standard reference range.
Ignoring national trends, Clinton has a 99.9% chance of winning here. Two electoral votes in this state are allocated at the district level. We use Cook Political Report ratings for those: solidly Democrat and leaning Republican.
The accuracy of his predictions won him further acclaim, including abroad, [67] and added to his reputation as a leading political prognosticator. [68] Barack Obama's 2008 presidential campaign signed off on a proposal to share all of its private polling with Silver. After signing a confidentiality agreement, Silver was granted access to ...
Confidence bands can be constructed around estimates of the empirical distribution function.Simple theory allows the construction of point-wise confidence intervals, but it is also possible to construct a simultaneous confidence band for the cumulative distribution function as a whole by inverting the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, or by using non-parametric likelihood methods.
For instance, maybe forecasts of sun are 99% accurate and forecasts of rain are 80% accurate. Then, having seen today's forecast, one would be either 99% or 80% confident, but never 95% confident. A 95% confidence level does not mean that 95% of the sample data lie within the confidence interval.
The accuracy of Gallup's forecasts indicated the value of modern statistical methods; according to data collected in the Gallup poll, the Literary Digest poll failed primarily due to non-response bias (Roosevelt won 69 percent of Literary Digest readers who did not participate in the poll) rather than selection bias as commonly believed.