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  2. Fixed-odds betting - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed-odds_betting

    In making a bet where the expected value is positive, one is said to be getting "the best of it". For example, if one were to bet $1 at 10 to 1 odds (one could win $10) on the outcome of a coin flip, one would be getting "the best of it" and should always make the bet (assuming a rational and risk-neutral attitude with linear utility curves and have no preferences implying loss aversion or the ...

  3. Accuracy paradox - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accuracy_paradox

    Even though the accuracy is ⁠ 10 + 999000 / 1000000 ⁠ ≈ 99.9%, 990 out of the 1000 positive predictions are incorrect. The precision of ⁠ 10 / 10 + 990 ⁠ = 1% reveals its poor performance. As the classes are so unbalanced, a better metric is the F1 score = ⁠ 2 × 0.01 × 1 / 0.01 + 1 ⁠ ≈ 2% (the recall being ⁠ 10 + 0 / 10 ...

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  5. Kelly criterion - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

    Example of the optimal Kelly betting fraction, versus expected return of other fractional bets. In probability theory, the Kelly criterion (or Kelly strategy or Kelly bet) is a formula for sizing a sequence of bets by maximizing the long-term expected value of the logarithm of wealth, which is equivalent to maximizing the long-term expected geometric growth rate.

  6. 50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think ... - AOL

    www.aol.com/people-share-70-things-believe...

    "The future is now, old man." The post 50 Predictions For The Next Thirty Years People Think Have A 99% Chance Of Becoming A Reality first appeared on Bored Panda.

  7. FiveThirtyEight - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight

    The final prediction by FiveThirtyEight on the morning of election day (November 8, 2016) had Hillary Clinton with a 71% chance to win the 2016 United States presidential election, [69] while other major forecasters had predicted Clinton to win with at least an 85% to 99% probability.

  8. Positive and negative predictive values - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Positive_and_negative...

    The positive predictive value (PPV), or precision, is defined as = + = where a "true positive" is the event that the test makes a positive prediction, and the subject has a positive result under the gold standard, and a "false positive" is the event that the test makes a positive prediction, and the subject has a negative result under the gold standard.

  9. Our DNA is 99.9 percent the same as the person sitting next ...

    www.aol.com/article/2016/05/06/our-dna-is-99-9...

    For humans, we're 99.9 percent similar to the person sitting next to us. The rest of those genes tell us everything from our eye color to if we're predisposed to certain diseases.

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