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Using a simplification of the above formula it is possible to estimate annualized volatility based solely on approximate observations. Suppose you notice that a market price index, which has a current value near 10,000, has moved about 100 points a day, on average, for many days. This would constitute a 1% daily movement, up or down.
The modified Dietz method [1] [2] [3] is a measure of the ex post (i.e. historical) performance of an investment portfolio in the presence of external flows. (External flows are movements of value such as transfers of cash, securities or other instruments in or out of the portfolio, with no equal simultaneous movement of value in the opposite direction, and which are not income from the ...
The average series is also a derivative estimate, with an additional low-pass filter in tandem for further smoothing (and additional lag). The difference between the MACD series and the average series (the divergence series) represents a measure of the second derivative of price with respect to time ("acceleration" in technical stock analysis).
The average stock market return of about 10 percent doesn’t factor in the impact of inflation, which has historically been around 2 to 4 percent annually depending on the time period.
A return of +100%, followed by −100%, has an average return of 0% but an overall return of −100% since the final value is 0. In cases of leveraged investments, even more extreme results are possible: A return of +200%, followed by −200%, has an average return of 0% but an overall return of −300%.
Average true range (ATR) is a technical analysis volatility indicator originally developed by J. Welles Wilder, Jr. for commodities. [ 1 ] [ 2 ] The indicator does not provide an indication of price trend , simply the degree of price volatility. [ 3 ]
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