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  2. Posterior probability - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Posterior_probability

    Posterior probability is a conditional probability conditioned on randomly observed data. Hence it is a random variable. For a random variable, it is important to summarize its amount of uncertainty. One way to achieve this goal is to provide a credible interval of the posterior probability. [11]

  3. Posterior predictive distribution - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Posterior_predictive...

    In Bayesian statistics, the posterior predictive distribution is the distribution of possible unobserved values conditional on the observed values. [1] [2]Given a set of N i.i.d. observations = {, …,}, a new value ~ will be drawn from a distribution that depends on a parameter , where is the parameter space.

  4. Bayesian hierarchical modeling - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_hierarchical_modeling

    This equation, showing the relationship between the conditional probability and the individual events, is known as Bayes' theorem. This simple expression encapsulates the technical core of Bayesian inference which aims to incorporate the updated belief, (), in appropriate and solvable ways. [9]

  5. Bayesian linear regression - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_linear_regression

    Bayesian linear regression is a type of conditional modeling in which the mean of one variable is described by a linear combination of other variables, with the goal of obtaining the posterior probability of the regression coefficients (as well as other parameters describing the distribution of the regressand) and ultimately allowing the out-of-sample prediction of the regressand (often ...

  6. Conditional probability distribution - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conditional_probability...

    Given , the Radon-Nikodym theorem implies that there is [3] a -measurable random variable ():, called the conditional probability, such that () = for every , and such a random variable is uniquely defined up to sets of probability zero. A conditional probability is called regular if ⁡ () is a probability measure on (,) for all a.e.

  7. Approximate Bayesian computation - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Approximate_Bayesian...

    The posterior distribution should have a non-negligible probability for parameter values in a region around the true value of in the system if the data are sufficiently informative. In this example, the posterior probability mass is evenly split between the values 0.08 and 0.43.

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