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The period when major central banks focused on targeting the growth of money supply, reflecting monetarist theory, lasted only for a few years, in the US from 1979 to 1982. [16] The money supply is useful as a policy target only if the relationship between money and nominal GDP, and therefore inflation, is stable and predictable.
The currency component of the money supply is far smaller than the deposit component. Currency, bank reserves and institutional loan agreements together make up the monetary base, called M1, M2 and M3. The Federal Reserve Bank stopped publishing M3 and counting it as part of the money supply in 2006. [33]
The supply of money is also exogenous and can be controlled by the monetary authority (the central bank). Under these three assumptions, there is a causal effect of M on P, and the central bank, by controlling money supply, will be able to directly control the price level of the economy. Specifically, a constant growth rate in the money stock ...
Creating money activates idle resources, mainly labor. Not doing so is immoral. Demand can be insensitive to interest rate changes, so a key mainstream assumption, that lower interest rates lead to higher demand, is questionable. There is a "free lunch" in creating money to fund government expenditure to achieve full employment.
Basic economics also teaches that the money supply shrinks when loans are repaid; [13] [14] however, the money supply will not necessarily decrease depending on the creation of new loans and other effects. Other than loans, investment activities of commercial banks and the Federal Reserve also increase and decrease the money supply. [15]
Since the mid-1970s money supply targets have been used in many countries to address inflation targets. Many advanced economies, such as the US and the UK, made their policy rates broadly consistent with the Taylor rule in the period of the Great Moderation between the mid-1980s and early 2000s. That period was characterized by limited ...
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