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The use of log probabilities improves numerical stability, when the probabilities are very small, because of the way in which computers approximate real numbers. [1] Simplicity. Many probability distributions have an exponential form. Taking the log of these distributions eliminates the exponential function, unwrapping the exponent.
If p is a probability, then p/(1 − p) is the corresponding odds; the logit of the probability is the logarithm of the odds, i.e.: = = = = (). The base of the logarithm function used is of little importance in the present article, as long as it is greater than 1, but the natural logarithm with base e is the one most often used.
The corresponding probability of the value labeled "1" can vary between 0 (certainly the value "0") and 1 (certainly the value "1"), hence the labeling; [2] the function that converts log-odds to probability is the logistic function, hence the name.
A maximum of the likelihood function occurs at the same parameter-value as a maximum of the logarithm of the likelihood (the "log likelihood"), because the logarithm is an increasing function. The log-likelihood is easier to maximize, especially for the multiplied likelihoods for independent random variables. [77]
Calculation of probability (risk) vs odds. In statistics, odds are an expression of relative probabilities, generally quoted as the odds in favor.The odds (in favor) of an event or a proposition is the ratio of the probability that the event will happen to the probability that the event will not happen.
The log-metalog distribution, which is highly shape-flexile, has simple closed forms, can be parameterized with data using linear least squares, and subsumes the log-logistic distribution as a special case. The log-normal distribution, describing variables which can be modelled as the product of many small independent positive variables.
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In hydrology, the log-normal distribution is used to analyze extreme values of such variables as monthly and annual maximum values of daily rainfall and river discharge volumes. [ 78 ] The image on the right, made with CumFreq , illustrates an example of fitting the log-normal distribution to ranked annually maximum one-day rainfalls showing ...