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The doomsday argument (DA), or Carter catastrophe, is a probabilistic argument that claims to predict the future population of the human species based on an estimation of the number of humans born to date. The doomsday argument was originally proposed by the astrophysicist Brandon Carter in 1983, [1] leading to the initial name of the Carter ...
If the doomsday argument can apply to itself it can be simultaneously right (as a probabilistic argument) and probably wrong (as a prediction).. Therefore, Landsberg and Dewynne argue that it is more likely that the doomsday argument is wrong (even if its logic is correct) than that the human race will become extinct in 9,000 years (which the doomsday argument calculates at around 95% likely).
(Brandon Carter's alternative form of the Doomsday argument was delivered earlier that year, but Gott's derivation was independent.) He made a major effort subsequently to defend his form of the Doomsday argument from a variety of philosophical attacks, and this debate (like the feasibility of closed time loops) is still ongoing.
The self-indication assumption doomsday argument rebuttal is an objection to the doomsday argument (that there is only a 5% chance of more than twenty times the historic number of humans ever being born) by arguing that the chance of being born is not one, but is an increasing function of the number of people who will be born.
The n-universes were introduced in Franceschi (2001), in the context of the study of Goodman's paradox and were also used for the analysis of the thought experiments and paradoxes related to the Doomsday argument.
Doomsday argument – a probabilistic argument that claims to predict number of future members of the human species given only an estimate of the total number of humans born so far; Hostage Chess – a chess variant invented by Leslie
Doomsday may refer to: Eschatology , a time period described in the eschatological writings in Abrahamic religions and in doomsday scenarios of non-Abrahamic religions. Global catastrophic risk , a hypothetical event explored in science and fiction where human civilization or life is at risk of partial or complete destruction.
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