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One manifestation of the overconfidence effect is the tendency to overestimate one's standing on a dimension of judgment or performance. This subsection of overconfidence focuses on the certainty one feels in their own ability, performance, level of control, or chance of success.
Illusory superiority has also explained phenomena such as the large amount of stock market trading (as each trader thinks they are the best, and most likely to succeed), [21] and the number of lawsuits that go to trial (because, due to illusory superiority, many lawyers have an inflated belief that they will win a case).
In other words, advisers are often able to get away with being overconfident -- and wrong. As customers, it means we need to be more wary -- not less -- of advisers who present their suggestions ...
Hindsight bias influences the decisions of investors in the investment sector. Investors tend to be overconfident in predicting the future because we mistakenly believe that we have predicted the present in the past, so we assume that the future will follow our predictions. Overconfidence is the killer for investment returns.
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Some researchers include a metacognitive component in their definition. In this view, the Dunning–Kruger effect is the thesis that those who are incompetent in a given area tend to be ignorant of their incompetence, i.e., they lack the metacognitive ability to become aware of their incompetence.
After a series of easy victories against their opponents, the overconfident Japanese failed to take elementary precautions. Italy's entry in WW2 (1940) followed a series of victories in Libya (1922-1932), Ethiopia (1935-1936), Spain (1936-1939), and Albania (1939), which gave the Fascist regime the illusion of being able to win a global war ...
In game theory, a win–win game or win–win [1] scenario is a situation that produces a mutually beneficial outcome for two or more parties. [2] It is also called a positive-sum game as it is the opposite of a zero-sum game .