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Example of the optimal Kelly betting fraction, versus expected return of other fractional bets. In probability theory, the Kelly criterion (or Kelly strategy or Kelly bet) is a formula for sizing a sequence of bets by maximizing the long-term expected value of the logarithm of wealth, which is equivalent to maximizing the long-term expected geometric growth rate.
Two events are independent if and only if the odds ratio is 1; if the odds ratio is greater than 1, the events are positively associated; if the odds ratio is less than 1, the events are negatively associated. The odds ratio has a simple expression in terms of probabilities; given the joint probability distribution:
If the probability of being offered 5 to 1 odds is more than 50%, the Kelly bettor will actually make a negative bet at 2 to 1 odds (that is, bet on the 50/50 outcome with payout of 1/2 if he wins and paying 1 if he loses). In either case, his bet at 5 to 1 odds, if the opportunity is offered, is 40% minus 0.7 times his 2 to 1 bet.
Choi et al. [21] propose a p-value derived from the likelihood ratio test based on the conditional distribution of the odds ratio given the marginal success rate. This p -value is inferentially consistent with classical tests of normally distributed data as well as with likelihood ratios and support intervals based on this conditional ...
The name Log5 is due to Bill James [1] but the method of using odds ratios in this way dates back much farther. This is in effect a logistic rating model and is therefore equivalent to the Bradley–Terry model used for paired comparisons , the Elo rating system used in chess and the Rasch model used in the analysis of categorical data.
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An odds ratio (OR) is a statistic that quantifies the strength of the association between two events, A and B. The odds ratio is defined as the ratio of the odds of event A taking place in the presence of B, and the odds of A in the absence of B. Due to symmetry, odds ratio reciprocally calculates the ratio of the odds of B occurring in the presence of A, and the odds of B in the absence of A.
PokerStove is a program that calculates hand equities (i.e., expected percentage of the time that each hand wins at showdown). [3] Since poker is a game of incomplete information, the calculator is designed to evaluate the equity of ranges of hands that players can hold, instead of individual hands. [4]