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The overconfidence effect is a well-established bias in which a person's subjective confidence in their judgments is reliably greater than the objective accuracy of those judgments, especially when confidence is relatively high. [1] [2] Overconfidence is one example of a miscalibration of subjective probabilities.
The Pollyanna principle (also called Pollyannaism or positivity bias) is the tendency for people to remember pleasant items more accurately than unpleasant ones. [1] Research indicates that at the subconscious level, the mind tends to focus on the optimistic; while at the conscious level, it tends to focus on the negative.
The Guardian penned that the book is "blunt, half-baked" and says that it "could have been half the length and it would have been a far better book for it". [23] Book industry magazines Publishers Weekly and Kirkus Reviews praised the book's practical analysis of noise and bias, but they found the language somewhat over-complicated and dense ...
Over the last decade we have published essays on race, immigration, entrepreneurism, the staggering national debt, books and libraries, the basis of political legitimacy, war and violence, and the ...
Overconfidence is a very serious problem, but you probably think it doesn't affect you. That's the tricky thing with overconfidence: The people who are most overconfident are the ones least likely ...
Why You Need to Do Your Research There are other takeaways from this study and others that can have a bearing on how you interpret professional advice and whether or not to act on it. For example:
All but one of the essays had previously been published in The Objectivist Newsletter, a magazine that Rand and Branden had launched in 1962. The exception was the book's first essay, "The Objectivist Ethics", which was a paper Rand delivered at the University of Wisconsin during a symposium on "Ethics in Our Time". [1] "The Objectivist Ethics ...
Created Date: 8/30/2012 4:52:52 PM
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