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The chart below shows opinion polls conducted since the 2024 general election. The trend lines are local regressions (LOESS). The bar on the left represents the previous election, and the bar on the right represents the latest possible date of the next election.
YouGov produced a poll of seats in South West England that had elected a Conservative MP in every election since the 2015 general election and where a majority of voters were estimated to have voted to leave the European Union in the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum. They branded these seats the "Conservative Celtic Fringe".
When a poll result is a tie, the figures with the highest percentages are shaded and displayed in bold. "Green" in these tables refers to combined totals for the green parties in the United Kingdom , namely the Green Party of England and Wales , the Scottish Greens , and, for polls of the entire UK, the Green Party Northern Ireland .
A YouGov snap poll after the debate indicated that 46% of debate viewers thought Sunak had performed better, and 45% believed Starmer had performed better. [316] A Savanta poll published the next day favoured Starmer 44% to Sunak 39%. [317] The debate was watched by 5.37 million viewers, making it the most-viewed programme of the week. [318]
At various dates in the run up to the 2024 general election on 4 July 2024, various organisations have carried out opinion polling to gauge the opinions that voters hold towards political leaders. The polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.
Across the 12 general elections from 1992 to 2024, the site correctly predicted the party to win the most seats in all but one (1992). They also correctly predicted the outcome, that is, the party winning a majority or a hung parliament, in six elections (majorities in 1997, 2001, 2005, 2015, 2017 (by a majority of only 3), 2019, 2024; hung parliament for 2010).
Reform UK placed third in the share of the vote in the 2024 election and had MPs elected to the Commons for the first time. [12] Farage and his party Reform UK have done well in opinion polls in expense of both Labour and the Conservatives. The Liberal Democrats made significant gains to
The ONS publishes its latest forecast of UK population, suggesting that the number of people in the UK could rise from 67 to 73.7 million by 2036, driven by strong immigration. [131] [132] 31 January Post-Brexit controls on food, plant and animal imports to Britain from the EU come into force. [133]
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