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In statistics, a moving average (rolling average or running average or moving mean [1] or rolling mean) is a calculation to analyze data points by creating a series of averages of different selections of the full data set. Variations include: simple, cumulative, or weighted forms. Mathematically, a moving average is a type of convolution.
Technical trading strategies were found to be effective in the Chinese marketplace by a 2007 study that states, "Finally, we find significant positive returns on buy trades generated by the contrarian version of the moving-average crossover rule, the channel breakout rule, and the Bollinger band trading rule, after accounting for transaction ...
ARMA is appropriate when a system is a function of a series of unobserved shocks (the MA or moving average part) as well as its own behavior. For example, stock prices may be shocked by fundamental information as well as exhibiting technical trending and mean-reversion effects due to market participants. [citation needed]
A breakout is when prices pass through and stay through an area of support or resistance. On the technical analysis chart a break out occurs when price of a stock or commodity exits an area pattern. Oftentimes, a stock or commodity will bounce between the areas of support and resistance and when it breaks through either one of these barriers ...
In time series analysis, the moving-average model (MA model), also known as moving-average process, is a common approach for modeling univariate time series. [ 1 ] [ 2 ] The moving-average model specifies that the output variable is cross-correlated with a non-identical to itself random-variable.
For this reason, trend traders often focus on commodities, which show a stronger tendency to trend than on stocks, which are more likely to be mean reverting (which favors swing traders). In addition to quiet low volatility markets, where trend following strategies perform well, trend trading is also very effective in high volatility markets ...
A stock that surpasses its support or resistance level is considered a breakout stock. These levels represent the price points that the stock has struggled to move beyond during a specific period.
Moving average strategies are simple to understand, and often claim to give good returns, but the results may be confused by hindsight and data mining. [ 8 ] [ 9 ] A major stumbling block for many market timers is a phenomenon called " curve fitting ", which states that a given set of trading rules tends to be over-optimized to fit the ...