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In statistics, point estimation involves the use of sample data to calculate a single value (known as a point estimate since it identifies a point in some parameter space) which is to serve as a "best guess" or "best estimate" of an unknown population parameter (for example, the population mean).
Some researchers include a metacognitive component in their definition. In this view, the Dunning–Kruger effect is the thesis that those who are incompetent in a given area tend to be ignorant of their incompetence, i.e., they lack the metacognitive ability to become aware of their incompetence.
The PDB is intended to keep the president informed on a wide range of issues, the best analysts write it and senior leaders review it. This, the "August 6 PDB", is at the center of much controversy for the USIC. The August 6 PDB began with not only a vague warning in the title, but also continued with vague warnings:
Many significance tests have an estimation counterpart; [26] in almost every case, the test result (or its p-value) can be simply substituted with the effect size and a precision estimate. For example, instead of using Student's t-test , the analyst can compare two independent groups by calculating the mean difference and its 95% confidence ...
These values are used to calculate an E value for the estimate and a standard deviation (SD) as L-estimators, where: E = (a + 4m + b) / 6 SD = (b − a) / 6. E is a weighted average which takes into account both the most optimistic and most pessimistic estimates provided. SD measures the variability or uncertainty in the estimate.
A critical aspect of convergent thinking is that it leads to a single best answer, leaving no room for ambiguity. In this view, answers are either right or wrong. The solution that is derived at the end of the convergent thinking process is the best possible answer the majority of the time.
In statistics a minimum-variance unbiased estimator (MVUE) or uniformly minimum-variance unbiased estimator (UMVUE) is an unbiased estimator that has lower variance than any other unbiased estimator for all possible values of the parameter.
In his book Psychology of Intelligence Analysis, retired CIA analyst Richards Heuer wrote that analysts should clearly delineate their assumptions and chains of inference and specify the degree and source of the uncertainty involved in the conclusions. [93] He emphasized procedures to help surface and debate alternative points of view. [94]