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In probability and statistics, the PERT distributions are a family of continuous probability distributions defined by the minimum (a), most likely (b) and maximum (c) values that a variable can take. It is a transformation of the four-parameter beta distribution with an additional assumption that its expected value is
For example, a triangular distribution might be used, depending on the application. In three-point estimation, three figures are produced initially for every distribution that is required, based on prior experience or best-guesses: a = the best-case estimate; m = the most likely estimate; b = the worst-case estimate
PERT network chart for a seven-month project with five milestones (10 through 50) and six activities (A through F). The program evaluation and review technique (PERT) is a statistical tool used in project management, which was designed to analyze and represent the tasks involved in completing a given project.
It is ubiquitous in nature and statistics due to the central limit theorem: every variable that can be modelled as a sum of many small independent, identically distributed variables with finite mean and variance is approximately normal. The normal-exponential-gamma distribution; The normal-inverse Gaussian distribution
The critical path method (CPM), or critical path analysis (CPA), is an algorithm for scheduling a set of project activities. [1] A critical path is determined by identifying the longest stretch of dependent activities and measuring the time [ 2 ] required to complete them from start to finish.
Minimum time and staffing concepts based on Brooks's law; The Use Case Points method (UCP) Weighted Micro Function Points (WMFP) Wideband Delphi; Most cost software development estimation techniques involve estimating or measuring software size first and then applying some knowledge of historical of cost per unit of size.
Parametric methods, by which the parameters of the distribution are calculated from the data series. [3] The parametric methods are: Method of moments; Maximum spacing estimation; Method of L-moments [4] Maximum likelihood method [5]
A method that is commonly referred to as PERT is popularly used in STA. However, PERT is a misnomer, and the so-called PERT method discussed in most of the literature on timing analysis refers to the critical path method (CPM) [ 6 ] that is widely used in project management.