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Download. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and...
An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which...
538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Kamala Harris’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning.
Democrats win. No Electoral College majority, House decides election. See the Senate forecast. * This is FiveThirtyEight’s best guess as to who the nominee will be, based on an analysis of...
We analyzed virtually all polls conducted in the final 21 days 1 before every presidential, U.S. Senate, U.S. House and gubernatorial general election, and every presidential primary, since 1998 ...
How Harris is distancing herself from Biden on the economy | 538 Politics podcast. The 538 team discusses the strategic differences between the Harris campaign when addressing inflation and the ...
FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society.
His lead is larger than Clinton’s in every battleground state, and more than double her lead nationally. Our model forecasts Biden to win the popular vote by 8 percentage points, 1 more than ...
95% OF AVERAGES PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to...
Here’s a quick primer to help you get the most out of the new iteration of our polling tracker. As you can see, there are six columns of data for each poll. First are the dates when the poll was ...