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The MSE either assesses the quality of a predictor (i.e., a function mapping arbitrary inputs to a sample of values of some random variable), or of an estimator (i.e., a mathematical function mapping a sample of data to an estimate of a parameter of the population from which the data is sampled).
It is calculated as the sum of squares of the prediction residuals for those observations. [ 1 ] [ 2 ] [ 3 ] Specifically, the PRESS statistic is an exhaustive form of cross-validation , as it tests all the possible ways that the original data can be divided into a training and a validation set.
When the model has been estimated over all available data with none held back, the MSPE of the model over the entire population of mostly unobserved data can be estimated as follows.
The general regression model with n observations and k explanators, the first of which is a constant unit vector whose coefficient is the regression intercept, is = + where y is an n × 1 vector of dependent variable observations, each column of the n × k matrix X is a vector of observations on one of the k explanators, is a k × 1 vector of true coefficients, and e is an n× 1 vector of the ...
In statistics, a sum of squares due to lack of fit, or more tersely a lack-of-fit sum of squares, is one of the components of a partition of the sum of squares of residuals in an analysis of variance, used in the numerator in an F-test of the null hypothesis that says that a proposed model fits well.
The RMSD of predicted values ^ for times t of a regression's dependent variable, with variables observed over T times, is computed for T different predictions as the square root of the mean of the squares of the deviations:
The explained sum of squares (ESS) is the sum of the squares of the deviations of the predicted values from the mean value of a response variable, in a standard regression model — for example, y i = a + b 1 x 1i + b 2 x 2i + ... + ε i, where y i is the i th observation of the response variable, x ji is the i th observation of the j th ...
In contrast to the mean absolute percentage error, SMAPE has both a lower and an upper bound. Indeed, the formula above provides a result between 0% and 200%. Indeed, the formula above provides a result between 0% and 200%.