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A major part of modern weather forecasting is the severe weather alerts and advisories that the national weather services issue in the case that severe or hazardous weather is expected. This is done to protect life and property. [ 91 ]
Weather reconnaissance aircraft, such as this WP-3D Orion, provide data that is then used in numerical weather forecasts.. The atmosphere is a fluid.As such, the idea of numerical weather prediction is to sample the state of the fluid at a given time and use the equations of fluid dynamics and thermodynamics to estimate the state of the fluid at some time in the future.
Weather forecast skill is often presented in the form of seasonal geographical maps. Forecasting skill for single-value forecasts (i.e., time series of a scalar quantity) is commonly represented in terms of metrics such as correlation, root mean squared error, mean absolute error, relative mean absolute error, bias, and the Brier score, among ...
An important branch of weather forecasting is marine weather forecasting as it relates to maritime and coastal safety, in which weather effects also include atmospheric interactions with large bodies of water. Meteorological phenomena are observable weather events that are explained by the science of meteorology.
Data extrapolation, including development or dissipation, can be used to find the likely location of a moving weather system. The intensity of rainfall from a particular cloud or group of clouds can be estimated, giving a very good indication as to whether to expect flooding, the swelling of a river etc. Depending on the area of built-up space, drainage and land-use in general, a forecast ...
Top: Weather Research and Forecasting model simulation of Hurricane Rita tracks. Bottom: The spread of National Hurricane Center multi-model ensemble forecast. Ensemble forecasting is a method used in or within numerical weather prediction. Instead of making a single forecast of the most likely weather, a set (or ensemble) of forecasts is produced.
Rainfall forecasts can be verified a number of ways. Rain gauge observations can be gridded into areal averages, which are then compared to the grids for the forecast models. Weather radar estimates can be used outright, or corrected for rain gauge observations. [4] Several statistical scores can be based on the observed and forecast fields.
Articles on forecasting and analysis techniques, forecast verification studies, and case studies useful to forecasters. In addition, submissions that report on changes to the suite of operational numerical models and statistical post-processing techniques, and articles that demonstrate the transfer of research results to the forecasting community.
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