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The climate surrounding the volcano constrains the impact of the eruption. Models of eruptions that treat climatic variables as controls and hold eruption intensity constant predict particulate emissions, such as volcanic ash and other pyroclastic debris ejected into the atmosphere, in the tropics to reach higher altitudes than eruptions in ...
The eruption’s potential impacts to weather and climate are starting to come into focus, even as the danger posed by the volcano persists and evacuations continue.
The conversion of sulfur dioxide to sulfuric acid, which condenses rapidly in the stratosphere to form fine sulfate aerosols. A volcanic winter is a reduction in global temperatures caused by droplets of sulfuric acid obscuring the Sun and raising Earth's albedo (increasing the reflection of solar radiation) after a large, sulfur-rich, particularly explosive volcanic eruption.
The lingering effect of the volcanic winter of 536 was augmented in 539–540, when another volcanic eruption caused summer temperatures to decline as much as 2.7 °C (4.9 °F) below normal in Europe. [2] There is evidence of still another volcanic eruption in 547 which would have extended the cool period.
The impact of the volcanic eruptions was the phenomenon known as volcanic winter. In the volcanic winter of 536, summer temperatures fell by as much as 2.5 degrees Celsius (4.5 degrees Fahrenheit) below normal in Europe. ("Normal" is considered by scientists to be the average temperatures of the 1961–1990 period.)
The massive volcanic eruption caused an abrupt cooling, the palaeoanalysis shows a significant decrease of mean global temperature. [8] It affects the global monsoon system, the system is the major wind system that dominates the climate pattern of the Earth by seasonally reverses its direction.
Radiative forcing is defined in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report as follows: "The change in the net, downward minus upward, radiative flux (expressed in W/m 2) due to a change in an external driver of climate change, such as a change in the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO 2), the concentration of volcanic aerosols or the output of the Sun." [3]: 2245
A recent study found that an especially severe tropical volcanic eruption in 1257, possibly Mount Samalas (pre-caldera edifice of the active Rinjani) near Mount Rinjani, both in Lombok, Indonesia, followed by three smaller eruptions in 1268, 1275, and 1284, did not allow the climate to recover.