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The doomsday argument (DA), or Carter catastrophe, is a probabilistic argument that claims to predict the future population of the human species based on an estimation of the number of humans born to date. The doomsday argument was originally proposed by the astrophysicist Brandon Carter in 1983, [1] leading to the initial name of the Carter ...
If the doomsday argument can apply to itself it can be simultaneously right (as a probabilistic argument) and probably wrong (as a prediction).. Therefore, Landsberg and Dewynne argue that it is more likely that the doomsday argument is wrong (even if its logic is correct) than that the human race will become extinct in 9,000 years (which the doomsday argument calculates at around 95% likely).
The self-indication assumption doomsday argument rebuttal is an objection to the doomsday argument (that there is only a 5% chance of more than twenty times the historic number of humans ever being born) by arguing that the chance of being born is not one, but is an increasing function of the number of people who will be born.
(Brandon Carter's alternative form of the Doomsday argument was delivered earlier that year, but Gott's derivation was independent.) He made a major effort subsequently to defend his form of the Doomsday argument from a variety of philosophical attacks, and this debate (like the feasibility of closed time loops) is still ongoing.
Like “Testament” — the 1983 movie that imagined the fallout, both nuclear and psychological, after an atomic bomb is dropped on American soil — “Leave the World Behind” depicts a ...
Nick Bostrom (/ ˈ b ɒ s t r əm / BOST-rəm; Swedish: Niklas Boström [ˈnɪ̌kːlas ˈbûːstrœm]; born 10 March 1973) [4] is a philosopher known for his work on existential risk, the anthropic principle, human enhancement ethics, whole brain emulation, superintelligence risks, and the reversal test.
An unexpected loss, combined with a weak schedule, could create a doomsday situation. More likely, Georgia will feast on the meek and romp to an undefeated No. 1 playoff seed. SEC coaches don’t ...
Anthropic Bias: Observation Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy (2002) is a book by philosopher Nick Bostrom.Bostrom investigates how to reason when one suspects that evidence is biased by "observation selection effects", in other words, when the evidence presented has been pre-filtered by the condition that there was some appropriately positioned observer to "receive" the evidence.