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As time passed, though, Rasmussen’s inability to meet the standards set by 538 — and two dubious polls conducted for right-wing organizations — eventually led 538 to make the change this week. MSN
Over last week or two her lead has shrunk by about 0.5 points according to 538 polls. Both nationally and in swing states. Some swing states by closer to 1 point. :-(This is contrary to the expected D convention bounce. I am especially worried about PA being so close. P.S.
Trump received slightly less than polls said in Iowa, NH and SC ... but did better than polls said in Nevada. Nevada will be an important swing state in the general election, while Iowa and South Carolina are clearly Republican and unimportant. NH is lean Biden. So, Trump did a bit worse than polls said in 3 states, better in 1.
But this thread, conversation and discrepancy with RCP has certainly increased my 538 curiosity and my curiosity about the discrepancy part. So, I just went into 538 and averaged the list of polls they show under their National Poll average (with Harris +3.6).
538 dropped Rasmussen from their pool of polls because they found it unreliable. Rasmussen also has incredible volatility; successive polls will swing wildly. On a straight average (I assume RCP weights them, but I do not know), Rasmussen is the only one above showing strength for Trump.
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Weekly and Daily 2024 Electoral College Polls. PoliSciPulse. Oct 11, 2024. Oct 11, 2024. Replies: 26. When last we left our heroes and villains, Kamala Harris had a 69-electoral-vote lead over Trump, with 248 electoral votes to Trump’s 179. This blog thread will contain weekly and, after the 28th, daily updates for the remainder of the ...
This is an update to my earlier thread of 2020 vs 2024 polls. I had pointed out there that nationally in 2020 and in swing states, Biden was quite ahead of Trump according to 538 collection of polls. Yet, in the end, despite winning popular vote by many millions, Biden barely won in 2020 by just 44,000 votes in Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin.
There have been two polls taken for Iowa: Emerson - Trump 54, Harris 45 Selzer - Harris 47, Trump 44. If we averaged those two together, it is Trump 49, Harris 46. 538 gives both polls high ratings. We're all tired of polls. The only one we're waiting is the last NYT/Siena poll.
538 has Trump leading in PA by 0.2%. If you averaged together the major polls (the ones 538 list as the most accurate polls), it is Harris 48.7% and Trump 47.3%. I have always had an intellectual problem with using rolling averages. The election is held on one day (Recounts may take longer).