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The Gompertz–Makeham law of mortality describes the age dynamics of human mortality rather accurately in the age window from about 30 to 80 years of age. At more advanced ages, some studies have found that death rates increase more slowly – a phenomenon known as the late-life mortality deceleration [2] – but more recent studies disagree. [4]
The force of mortality () can be interpreted as the conditional density of failure at age x, while f(x) is the unconditional density of failure at age x. [1] The unconditional density of failure at age x is the product of the probability of survival to age x , and the conditional density of failure at age x , given survival to age x .
The disputed late-life mortality deceleration law states that death rates stop increasing exponentially at advanced ages and level off to the late-life mortality plateau. A consequence of this deceleration is that there would be no fixed upper limit to human longevity — no fixed number which separates possible and impossible values of lifespan.
If the assumption is made that, on average, people live a half year on the year of their death, the complete life expectancy at age would be + /, which is denoted by e̊ x, and is the intuitive definition of life expectancy. By definition, life expectancy is an arithmetic mean. It can also be calculated by integrating the survival curve from 0 ...
Years of potential life lost (YPLL) or potential years of life lost (PYLL) is an estimate of the average years a person would have lived if they had not died prematurely. [1] It is, therefore, a measure of premature mortality. As an alternative to death rates, it is a method
Life table" primarily refers to period life tables, as cohort life tables can only be constructed using data up to the current point, and distant projections for future mortality. Life tables can be constructed using projections of future mortality rates, but more often they are a snapshot of age-specific mortality rates in the recent past, and ...
The Lee–Carter model is a numerical algorithm used in mortality forecasting and life expectancy forecasting. [1] The input to the model is a matrix of age specific mortality rates ordered monotonically by time, usually with ages in columns and years in rows. The output is a forecasted matrix of mortality rates in the same format as the input.
The algebraic symbols b, d and r stand for the rates of birth, death, and the rate of change per individual in the general population, the intrinsic rate of increase. This formula can be read as the rate of change in the population (dN/dt) is equal to births minus deaths (B − D). [2] [13] [17]