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In honor of the 75th annual Emmy Awards, we’ve created a handy downloadable and printable Emmys ballot, so you can make your predictions before it begins. Not only is it an easy way to virtually ...
In honor of the 72nd annual awards show, we’ve created a handy downloadable and printable Emmys ballot, so you can make your predictions before it begins. Track Your Award Show Predictions with ...
A sample of predictions for a single predictand (e.g., temperature at one location, or a single stock value) typically includes forecasts made on a number of different dates. A sample could also pool forecast-observation pairs across space, for a prediction made on a single date, as in the forecast of a weather event that is verified at many ...
Probabilistic forecasting summarizes what is known about, or opinions about, future events. In contrast to single-valued forecasts (such as forecasting that the maximum temperature at a given site on a given day will be 23 degrees Celsius, or that the result in a given football match will be a no-score draw), probabilistic forecasts assign a probability to each of a number of different ...
The Economist reports that superforecasters are clever (with a good mental attitude), but not necessarily geniuses. It reports on the treasure trove of data coming from The Good Judgment Project, showing that accurately selected amateur forecasters (and the confidence they had in their forecasts) were often more accurately tuned than experts. [1]
In the study of biology – particularly genetics and neuroscience – predictability relates to the prediction of biological developments and behaviors based on inherited genes and past experiences. Significant debate exists in the scientific community over whether or not a person's behavior is completely predictable based on their genetics.
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