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There are two major types of problems in uncertainty quantification: one is the forward propagation of uncertainty (where the various sources of uncertainty are propagated through the model to predict the overall uncertainty in the system response) and the other is the inverse assessment of model uncertainty and parameter uncertainty (where the ...
Uncertainty on correlation parameters is another important source of model risk. Cont and Deguest propose a method for computing model risk exposures in multi-asset equity derivatives and show that options which depend on the worst or best performances in a basket (so called rainbow option) are more exposed to model uncertainty than index options.
Quantification of Margins and Uncertainty (QMU) is a decision support methodology for complex technical decisions. QMU focuses on the identification, characterization, and analysis of performance thresholds and their associated margins for engineering systems that are evaluated under conditions of uncertainty, particularly when portions of those results are generated using computational ...
In physical experiments uncertainty analysis, or experimental uncertainty assessment, deals with assessing the uncertainty in a measurement.An experiment designed to determine an effect, demonstrate a law, or estimate the numerical value of a physical variable will be affected by errors due to instrumentation, methodology, presence of confounding effects and so on.
The model used to convert the measurements into the derived quantity is usually based on fundamental principles of a science or engineering discipline. The uncertainty has two components, namely, bias (related to accuracy) and the unavoidable random variation that occurs when making repeated measurements (related to precision).
Uncertainty is an unavoidable aspect of everyday life. The degree to which it is felt in a given situation varies among individuals. Because uncertainty is dependent upon perspective, "a person who believes himself or herself to be uncertain is uncertain." [2] However, people have different appetites and tolerances for uncertainty. For some ...
Cases of norovirus — the virulent, wildly contagious virus that causes vomiting and diarrhea — are increasing in the U.S., the Centers for Disease Control says, reporting double the amount of ...
The classical stress-strain model for a metal. The material is presumed to fail if stress exceeds the yield stress. The yield stress of a material is often only known to a certain precision, meaning that there is an uncertainty and therefore a probability distribution associated with the known value.