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Asteroid impact prediction is the prediction of the dates and times of asteroids impacting Earth, along with the locations and severities of the impacts. The process of impact prediction follows three major steps: Discovery of an asteroid and initial assessment of its orbit which is generally based on a short observation arc of less than 2 weeks.
The table shows that for bodies in the asteroid albedo range, the typical difference between Bond and geometric albedo is 20% or less, with either quantity capable of being larger. Since the calculated temperature varies as ( 1 − A ) 1 4 {\displaystyle (1-A)^{1 \over 4}} , the dependence is fairly weak for typical asteroid A ≈ p ...
The Torino scale is a method for categorizing the impact hazard associated with near-Earth objects (NEOs) such as asteroids and comets.It is intended as a communication tool for astronomers and the public to assess the seriousness of collision predictions, by combining probability statistics and known kinetic damage potentials into a single threat value.
This is a list of asteroids that have impacted Earth after discovery and orbit calculation that predicted the impact in advance. As of December 2024, all of the asteroids with predicted impacts were under 5 m (16 ft) in size that were discovered just hours before impact, and burned up in the atmosphere as meteors.
101955 Bennu (provisional designation 1999 RQ 36) is a carbonaceous asteroid in the Apollo group discovered by the LINEAR Project on 11 September 1999. It is a potentially hazardous object that is listed on the Sentry Risk Table and has the highest cumulative rating on the Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale. [9]
2024 UQ, designated formerly as A11dc6D, was a one-meter meteoroid that struck the Earth's atmosphere and burned up harmlessly on 22 October 2024 above the Pacific Ocean off the coast of California. 2024 UQ is the tenth impact event that was successfully predicted, which was discovered by the ATLAS survey.
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The first two objects that were detected and had their Earth-MOID calculated before Earth impact were the small asteroids 2008 TC 3 and 2014 AA. 2014 AA is listed with a MOID of 0.00000045 AU (67 km; 42 mi), [5] and is the second smallest MOID calculated for an Apollo asteroid after 2020 QY 2 with an Earth-MOID of 0.00000039 AU (58 km; 36 mi). [6]