Ad
related to: superforecasters summary pdf format printable free
Search results
Results from the WOW.Com Content Network
A superforecaster is a person who makes forecasts that can be shown by statistical means to have been consistently more accurate than the general public or experts. . Superforecasters sometimes use modern analytical and statistical methodologies to augment estimates of base rates of events; research finds that such forecasters are typically more accurate than experts in the field who do not ...
The Economist reports that superforecasters are clever (with a good mental attitude), but not necessarily geniuses. It reports on the treasure trove of data coming from The Good Judgment Project, showing that accurately selected amateur forecasters (and the confidence they had in their forecasts) were often more accurately tuned than experts. [1]
The Good Judgment Project (GJP) is an organization dedicated to "harnessing the wisdom of the crowd to forecast world events".It was co-created by Philip E. Tetlock (author of Superforecasting and Expert Political Judgment), decision scientist Barbara Mellers, and Don Moore, all professors at the University of Pennsylvania.
For premium support please call: 800-290-4726 more ways to reach us
This format has been used by thousands people over the past 20 years, and together we have shaped and simplified the annual life review and planning process to a point of profound power. Yes, we've been able to improve our ability to make things happen and many, many of us are more successful financially, in our careers and in our relationships ...
If you can read cursive, the National Archives would like a word. Or a few million. More than 200 years worth of U.S. documents need transcribing (or at least classifying) and the vast majority ...
Overall, their superforecasters gave a median estimate of 9.05 percent for a catastrophe from whatever source by 2100 while the median according to the experts was 20 percent, with 95 percent confidence intervals of [6.13, 10.25] and [15.44, 27.60] percent for superforecasters and experts, respectively.
Although the above formulation is the most widely used, the original definition by Brier [1] is applicable to multi-category forecasts as well as it remains a proper scoring rule, while the binary form (as used in the examples above) is only proper for binary events.
Ad
related to: superforecasters summary pdf format printable free