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99942 Apophis (provisional designation 2004 MN 4) is a near-Earth asteroid and a potentially hazardous object, 450 metres (1,480 ft) by 170 metres (560 ft) in size, [3] that caused a brief period of concern in December 2004 when initial observations indicated a probability of 2.7% that it would hit Earth on Friday, April 13, 2029.
The asteroid's provisional designation as a minor planet, "2024 YR 4", was assigned by the Minor Planet Center when its discovery was announced on 27 December 2024. [2] The first letter, "Y", indicates that the asteroid was discovered in the second half-month of December (16 to 31 December), and "R 4" indicates that it was the 117th provisional designation to be assigned in that half-month.
Assuming a two-dimensional Gaussian probability distribution in the plane perpendicular to the asteroid's orbit (the B-plane), the uncertainty can be characterized by the standard deviation (sigma) the close approach point in the directions along the asteroid's orbit and perpendicular to it, where the former is usually much larger.
The Palermo scale was devised for astronomers to compare impact hazards at a technical level, rather than for the general public. [2] It was adopted at the meeting of the Working Group on Near-Earth Objects of the Scientific and Technical Subcommittee of the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space which was held in Palermo, Italy, on June 11–16, 2001.
The bottom of this size range, 20 m (66 ft) corresponds to the average size of an asteroid with the smallest impact energy (1 megaton) considered for impact hazard ratings on the Torino scale. [ 12 ] 20 m (66 ft) is also about the size of the Chelyabinsk meteor , which produced a meteor ending in an airburst briefly brighter than the Sun that ...
Apophis will make an extremely close pass to the Earth on 13 April 2029, although there is no chance for an impact during this or any subsequent flybys in the near future. Observations of Apophis will commence on 8 April 2029, and a few days later, on 21 April, OSIRIS-APEX is planned to rendezvous with the asteroid. [90]
The asteroid with the greatest chance of impacting Earth in 2025 is 2009 VA (6-meters in diameter) with less than a 1-day observation arc. [8] It has a 1:48,000 chance of impact on 06 November 2023, but is expected to be around 0.3 AU (45 million km ) from Earth on that date with uncertainty region of ± 900 million km. [ 10 ]
While the asteroid Apophis won’t hit Earth, two spacecraft may tag along. ... When a cruise liner-size asteroid comes within 19,883 miles (32,000 kilometers) of Earth on April 13, 2029, it won ...