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A superforecaster is a person who makes forecasts that can be shown by statistical means to have been consistently more accurate than the general public or experts. . Superforecasters sometimes use modern analytical and statistical methodologies to augment estimates of base rates of events; research finds that such forecasters are typically more accurate than experts in the field who do not ...
The Economist reports that superforecasters are clever (with a good mental attitude), but not necessarily geniuses. It reports on the treasure trove of data coming from The Good Judgment Project, showing that accurately selected amateur forecasters (and the confidence they had in their forecasts) were often more accurately tuned than experts. [1]
Overall, their superforecasters gave a median estimate of 9.05 percent for a catastrophe from whatever source by 2100 while the median according to the experts was 20 percent, with 95 percent confidence intervals of [6.13, 10.25] and [15.44, 27.60] percent for superforecasters and experts, respectively. [13]
According to updated economic forecasts from the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the central bank sees core inflation hitting 2.5% next year, higher than its previous projection of 2. ...
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Consumer Price Index Summary, U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics. Accessed December 12, 2024. Producer Price Index News Release summary, U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics. Accessed December 13 ...
Commodities are No Country for Old Men By Richard Thomas “Never under-estimate the predictability of stupidity” says Bullet-Tooth Tony from Guy Ritchie’s
Don't rely on bloviating pundits to tell you who'll prevail on Hollywood's big night. The Huffington Post crunched the stats on every Oscar nominee of the past 30 years to produce a scientific metric for predicting the winners at the 2013 Academy Awards.