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A superforecaster is a person who makes forecasts that can be shown by statistical means to have been consistently more accurate than the general public or experts. . Superforecasters sometimes use modern analytical and statistical methodologies to augment estimates of base rates of events; research finds that such forecasters are typically more accurate than experts in the field who do not ...
The Economist reports that superforecasters are clever (with a good mental attitude), but not necessarily geniuses. It reports on the treasure trove of data coming from The Good Judgment Project, showing that accurately selected amateur forecasters (and the confidence they had in their forecasts) were often more accurately tuned than experts. [1]
Overall, their superforecasters gave a median estimate of 9.05 percent for a catastrophe from whatever source by 2100 while the median according to the experts was 20 percent, with 95 percent confidence intervals of [6.13, 10.25] and [15.44, 27.60] percent for superforecasters and experts, respectively. [13]
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Visualization, analysis, interactive maps and real-time graphics. Browse, copy and fork our open-source software; Remix thousands of aggregated polling results;
This form of simple trend extrapolation helps to direct attention towards the forces, which can change the projected pattern. A more elaborated curve that uses times series analysis can often reveal surprising historical and current data patterns. The qualitative trend analysis is one of the most demanding and creative methods in Futures Studies.
The Santa Ana winds form in a western area of the country known as the Great Basin, which includes Nevada and part of Utah. The basin sits at a higher elevation than Southern California.
That ~just right~ weight will help you achieve “what your body is capable of lifting while maintaining proper form,” Barnett says. Considering Barnett wrote the book on dumbbells ...