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A black swan (Cygnus atratus) in Australia. The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on a Latin expression which presumed that black swans did ...
This is the problem of induction. Suppose we want to put the hypothesis that all swans are white to the test. We come across a white swan. We cannot validly argue (or induce) from "here is a white swan" to "all swans are white"; doing so would require a logical fallacy such as, for example, affirming the consequent. [3]
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a 2007 book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who is a former options trader.The book focuses on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable outlier events—and the human tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events, retrospectively.
It’s a white swan event,” Taleb said during the interview. He believes the economic risks we currently face are obvious. After years of ultra-low interest rates in the U.S., Americans have ...
A perfect storm led to Bayesian sinking, experts say. The combination of unlikely factors that could have contributed to the ship's fate constituted a "black swan event," Matthew Schanck, chairman ...
The Sunday Times described his 2007 book The Black Swan as one of the 12 most influential books since World War II. [5] Taleb criticized risk management methods used by the finance industry and warned about financial crises, subsequently profiting from the Black Monday (1987) and the 2007–2008 financial crisis. [6]
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The Black Swan is not to be confused with "fat tails". Taleb's three attributes have no known precedent. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 194.209.131.192 17:21, 2 February 2009 (UTC) The Black swan is a metaphor not a theory. The page should be renamed to The Black Swan.